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Geeking Out: Fitting Florida COVID Case Fatality Rate to Gompertz-Makeham Form  

by meep

Okay, I was going to do a Taxing Tuesday, but screw it, I’m going to indulge myself.

It’s the eleventh day of Christmas! Party! Time for those pipers!

Noticing a pattern in Case Fatality Rates

It started, as it does, with a tweet:

a follower (coreylf) asked me...

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Mortality with Meep: Estimated U.S. Total Deaths for 2020, All Causes  

by meep

Key takeaway: I estimate about 3.3 million deaths for 2020 in the United States, with my range being 14% to 16% higher than total 2019 deaths.

Absolute floor for total U.S. deaths: 3.1 million

The CDC, as of December 30, 2020, had recorded over 3 million deaths for 2020.

If you...

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COVID Mortality Idiocies: Irrelevant Comparisons, Bad Context, and Under-estimating Deaths  

by meep

Some people have been asking me about some pretty stupid COVID “memes” going around, one so stupid that Facebook actually broke out fact-checking on it. So stupid that SLATE of all places debunked it.

This is really not the season for this sort of thing, and I’m going to...

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COVID Mortality with Meep: Making Comparisons, by Age, Week, and State  

by meep

First up, a notice: I will be doing a Twitter conversation with R. Dale Hall of the Society of Actuaries and Magali Barbieri of the Human Mortality Database:

Unfortunately, the United States is about to reach and exceed 3,000,000 deaths for the first time in a single...

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Chicago Homicides Quick-Take: 2020 is as Bad as 2016, Just More Concentrated  

by meep

I’m trying to tease apart all the sources of extra mortality for 2020, and while digging through my old files, I found my old posts on Chicago homicides:

• August 2019: Mortality with Meep: Chicago Homicides
• July 2017: Mortality Monday: More Chicago Shootings and Longer-Term Trends

I was wondering how...

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COVID News Round-up: Suicides, Increasing Deaths, Duty to Die, and Dolly Parton  

by meep

From the title itself, you must know some unhappy stuff is coming. But don’t worry — I end with some happy stuff (that’s Dolly Parton)

Japanese suicide rates on the rise

In Japan, more people died from suicide last month than from Covid in all of 2020. And women have been...

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COVID Mortality with Meep: The John Hopkins Post That Was Yanked  

by meep

I’m getting extremely angry over COVID mortality items again, and there is a lot of blame to go around.

I have seen this in multiple places, and I will link to only one version of this, because this is the one I’ve seen shared most often.

At Not the Bee: “corona...

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Mortality with Meep: The Sex Gap in COVID and Total Mortality  

by meep

I have written about the sex gap in normal mortality before, with June 2017’s Mortality Monday: The Sex Gap in Death, which I wrote a couple of months before Stu was diagnosed with advanced prostate cancer.

So before I get into the differences in mortality in the U.S. between...

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Mortality with Meep: Comparing COVID-19 and 2020 Total Death Rates Against U.S. Historical Rates  

by meep

In my prior post on COVID death impacts, Mortality with Meep: Comparing COVID-19 with Historical Mortality and Prior Pandemics , I looked solely at the total number of deaths and the percentage change in those deaths year-over-year.

The result: total deaths for 2020 is likely about 10%...

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Mortality with Meep: Comparing COVID-19 with Historical Mortality and Prior Pandemics  

by meep

My usual way to do a post is to go chronologically, building up from a base, and working toward a conclusion.

I’m going to give you my conclusions first, and then, if you’re interested, you can read how I got there.

COVID-19 is a serious mortality event

I have shown this...

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