I’ve got two “fun” items for you today, while you’re either anticipating a feast or recovering from it: historical descriptions of causes of death and actuarial humor books.
There will be more than just “Planet” and “Wolf” below, but this was popular...
I love a good Simpson’s Paradox example out in the wild, and here is a perfect one a friend sent me:
Mary Pat Campbell ·
Keep Reading...
by meep
15 July 2022, 21:56
Back in March, in the podcast section of my substack, I posted an episode called “Interest Rates and Sumo”.
July Sumo Time
Well, it’s sumo time again! Today, Friday, July 15, 2022 was the 6th day of the Nagoya Grand Sumo Tournament for 2022. Coincidentally, my new article in the...
Keep Reading...
by meep
1 July 2022, 12:32
It’s July 1, which means it’s Bobby Bonilla Day!
Let ESPN put you some knowledge:
The calendar has turned to July 1, and that means one thing: It’s time for Mets fans everywhere to wish each other a Happy Bobby Bonilla Day! Why? On Friday, 59-year-old Bobby Bonilla will collect...
Keep Reading...
by meep
2 January 2022, 16:29
You may have seen this recent story in the WSJ:
Actuaries quantify risk. One of their riskiest endeavors is trying to become one.
Among people taking at least one exam from the Society of Actuaries—the field’s biggest U.S. credentialing body—15% eventually pass the multiple tests required to become an Associate,...
Keep Reading...
by meep
8 December 2021, 21:03
On Monday, December 6, 2021, I gave a talk with the title “COVID Data Follies: Vaccination Rates, Relative Risk, and Simpson’s Paradox”, to the Actuarial Science program at Illinois State University (thanks for the t-shirt, y’all!):
You may have heard statistics in the news that most of the people testing positive...
Keep Reading...
by meep
19 August 2021, 12:58
That’s some paradox, that Simpson’s Paradox.
(and it comes up all the time in real life)
With the notice that the fully-vaccinated Texas governor has tested positive for COVID, I thought I’d do my own post on why we see so many fully-vaccinated people test positive for COVID....
Keep Reading...
by meep
1 July 2021, 10:56
As an actuary, Bobby Bonilla Day is my favorite day of the year.
The short version of the story is that Bobby Bonilla’s agent negotiated a very valuable deferred annuity arrangement for his client over 20 years ago, and Bonilla is still benefitting from this deal.
Bonilla got a guaranteed 8% nominal...
Keep Reading...
by meep
11 November 2020, 08:06
While Trump continues to sue to try to stop the veritable locomotive chugging toward Joe Biden’s inauguration, Biden’s staff announced a COVID task force:
As expected, the board’s three co-chairs are Marcella Nunez-Smith, a Yale physician and researcher; Vivek Murthy, a former U.S. surgeon general; and David Kessler, a...
Keep Reading...