STUMP » Articles » Merry Christmas! Have New Public Pensions Projections » 25 December 2019, 17:11

Where Stu & MP spout off about everything.

Merry Christmas! Have New Public Pensions Projections  


25 December 2019, 17:11

For my public pensions readers, I have updated my cashflow projection tool based on data from the Public Plan Database. The update was part of something I did for a webcast I did recently: ACTEX eLearning Webinar: Automating with VBA in Excel. If you want to see an older list of my webcasts, you can check here.

The spreadsheet is downloadable here. — It has macros. You don’t have to enable them, but I recommend making sure that calculation mode is set to automatic if that’s the case (one important macro makes sure things are calculated if you change your selection for pensions.)

If you come across any errors or have any additions to recommend, please email me:


Back in 2017 I tested MEABF, using data that went to FY2015. I had MEABF running out of cash in 2024 given a certain set of projection assumptions.

Let’s see what I get with a different set of assumptions, an three additional years of data:

The stats:

The assumptions and results:

So it runs out in 2026 with “flat” assumptions. Obviously, with different assumptions, you get different results. I will likely doing my testing to death project again, and I may build something more involved in the new year, jumping off from the macros I put in the spreadsheet.


What are you doing here? Seriously, I would like to know how you got to this post if you aren’t into public pension projections. My email is above (just scroll up) or @ me on twitter: meepbobeep.

Okay, but I hope you like Dickens.

Have some Dickens!


This 1910 Edison silent film, directed by J. Searle Dawley, is one of the earliest film adaptations of the classic Charles Dickens Christmas story. Featuring Marc McDermott as Ebenezer Scrooge, Charles S. Ogle as Bob Cratchit, and uncredited actors and actresses, William Bechtel, Viola Dana, Carey Lee, Shirley Mason.

I could say it’s sad that the least of Dickens (it’s a novella, at best… more of a long short story, tho), but I think Dickens would think it’s awesome that so many dramatic adaptations were made of his work and even derivative works.

My particular favorite is Blackadder’s Christmas Carol for a smartass adaptation, but the best adaptation to capture Dickens’s purpose and prose was the Muppet version.

You don’t have to take my word for it:

That’s enough of that.

I’m sure Michael Caine is chuffed that he was one of the best Scrooges, and while Jim Henson died before this production, it hewed to his vision and led to other Muppet literary adaptations. Come on, you can’t get better than their version of Treasure Island.

But look. You actually can’t do better than the original text. Dickens used to do dramatic readings of his own works, including A Christmas Carol.

There are a variety of modern equivalents you can find.

Here’s one by Neil Gaiman for the NYPL.



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