STUMP » Articles » More Predictions for Maximum Hilarity » 4 November 2016, 12:37

Where Stu & MP spout off about everything.

More Predictions for Maximum Hilarity  

by

4 November 2016, 12:37

I had too much fun with my last Presidential Prediction Post, here comes another one!

ASK THE MONKEY

A monkey kisses Trump:

China’s ‘monkey king’ kisses Trump cut-out, picks him as US president

A Chinese monkey described as the “king of prophets” has tipped Donald Trump for the US presidency, a tourism park said, after the creature successfully predicted the winner of football’s European Championship final earlier this year.

Known as Geda — which means knots or goose bumps — the prophetic primate is the latest in a series of purportedly psychic animals that have popped up around the world since Paul the Octopus correctly predicted multiple 2010 World Cup matches.

The simian seer, wearing a yellow shirt emblazoned with his title, was given a chance to pick between life-sized cut-outs of Republican Trump and his Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton.

After “deliberate thought” the mystic monkey chose Trump, Shiyanhu Ecological Tourism Park said Thursday in a statement on its website. Without even waiting, he congratulated the cardboard candidate with a kiss on the lips.

Seems as good a method as any.

UPDATES OF PRIOR FORECASTS

Since I’m redoing the prediction post, may as well update those that have changed:

538 still has Clinton winning, 67.8% chance. 296.4 electoral votes.

RCP Tracking poll has Clinton up by 1.7 percentage points over Trump.

ABC currently has Clinton at 278 electoral votes, and Clinton with a 3 point lead in their tracking poll.

LA Times has Trump over Clinton by 3.5 percentage points – widening the 1 percentage point lead that they had last week.

Iowa Electronic Markets still have Clinton up – but lots of volatility.

Good Judgment Project has Clinton with 75% chance to win.

NEW PREDICTORS?

So let me go reaching out to find new indicators. I already noted the monkey’s choice.

Some other predictors:

Predictwise at this moment in time: 84% chance of Clinton victory. Looks like it combines the results from multiple betting markets. Looks like he’s saying the electoral votes for Clinton should be over 300.

Bloomberg compiles some prediction sources (one of which was Predictwise) — I like the Peso barometer:

And there’s this particular prediction:

There is zero probability of a President Trump with a Democratic Senate and a Republican House

Because of the likelihood that Democratic gains in the Senate would also give the states to Clinton, the likelihood of Trump winning and then facing a divided Congress are negligible. Other scenarios are currently forecasted as being similarly improbable.

Hmmmm, I guess we’ll see.

Wacky predictions, take 1

Wacky predictions, take 2

Well, they’re “wacky” in terms of elections. They seem rather boring, in general. Who wins the cookie recipe vote? Eh. I guess. Wacky!

But here ya go, the astrologers have spoken:

Astrologers attending an international symposium in Costa Mesa Calif., unanimously agreed the election gods will not be smiling on The Donald when results for what has been the most contentious political campaign in modern American history are counted on November 9.

…..
Based solely on their interpretation of celestial indications, the astrologers one-by-one aligned against the GOP nominee. Little hope was offered for Mr. Trump’s chances.

ISAR President Ray Merriman says this is not the first time astrologers have weighed in on an American election. At other astrological events organized during election years astrologers unanimously predicted Barack Obama would emerge as the winner in 2008 and again in 2012.

And an amusing part of the astrologer story: astrologers want the long form birth certificate….so they know the time of birth.

The issue is of such importance that Ackerman, who once obtained Bill Clinton’s birth time from his mother, created a petition that would mandate congressional candidates to release long-form birth records.

Christeen Skinner, a panelist from London, said Clinton will win the election, but may not make it to her inauguration due to highly publicized health concerns.

“I just don’t see that inauguration taking place,” she said. “There’s a big dispute about her time of birth, so it could be maybe she gets the flu. Who knows.”

Anyway, that’s interesting.

Finally, a professor with a non-poll model:

Last month, the man who’s tried to turn vote prediction into a science predicted a Trump win.

Allan J. Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, said Democrats would not be able to hold on to the White House.

…..
THE FIX: Readers can learn a lot about the keys from the previous interviews we’ve done, but let’s remind people of the quick version: Your system for predicting the outcome of the election stays away from polls, electoral college maps and candidates’ histories in favor of a more broad historical evaluation.

LICHTMAN: The 13 keys are a historically based prediction system that were founded on the study of every presidential election from 1860 to 1980, and I’ve since used them prospectively to predict, often well ahead of time, the results of all eight elections from 1984 to 2012. The keys basically assess the strength and performance of the party holding the White House. There are 13 keys. An answer of true on these true/false questions always favors the reelection of the party in power. And if six or more of the 13 keys are false, the party in power, the party holding the White House, is the predicted loser — any six or more.

THE FIX: The first time we talked, you weren’t willing to predict a winner. Take me through that process and how you came to predict a Trump win.

LICHTMAN: Early on, the keys were inconclusive. That is, remember, six or more and the party in power is the predicted loser. And for some time, there were five keys out against the incumbent Democrats.

And since that time, as we discussed last time, that sixth key has turned against the Democrats, and that is the third party key, and that is based on an assessment that you would expect the third party candidate, in this case the Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, to get five percent or more of the vote. That’s a big sign of discontent with the party holding the White House. And so, again on the knife edge, you had exactly six fatal keys against the incumbent Democrats.
…..
By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump victory. However, there are two major qualifications. And I’m not a hedger, and I’ve never qualified before in 30 years of predictions.

Qualification number one: It takes six keys to count the party in power out, and they have exactly six keys. And one key could still flip, as I recognized last time — the third party key, that requires Gary Johnson to get at least five percent of the popular vote. He could slip below that, which would shift the prediction.

The second qualification is Donald Trump. We have never seen someone who is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860.

So there you have it. Trump will win unless Clinton does.

Of course, if Evan McMullin wins….


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